Did Chelsea drop a €68m ball with Courtois and Arrizabalaga in the transfer market?

September 12 – Chelsea could have lost as much as €68 million in value on their goalkeeper trading in the summer transfer window, according to new analysis from the CIES Football Observatory.

Chelsea sold Thibaut Courtois to Real Madrid for €23 million less than the estimated fair price according to CIES stats. And they paid €45 million over the top for his replacement Kepa Arrizabalaga from Spain’s Athletic Club.

“The fair price corresponds to the average between the estimated cost for the most likely buyer before the transfer and the current transfer value. Both figures were calculated using the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm. The correlation between fees estimated and reported for players transferred for money from big-5 league teams during last transfer window was 75%,”say CIES authors.

The figures make Chelsea the worst buyers and the worst sellers in the summer market.

The tables of top 25 buying clubs and selling clubs show 28 English Premier League clubs named in transactions. In contrast, and perhaps indicating the balance of trade in the current transfer market, just eight German Bundesliga clubs appear.

“Rodri Hernandez, Bryan Crisante, Fabinho Tavares and Clement Lenglet are alongside Thibaut Courtois in the top five for the best operations from an engaging club perspective,”say CIES.

“For Rodri and Lenglet, the existence of a release clause helped recruiting teams to sign them at a favourable price. As for Kepa Arrizabalaga, the CIES Football Observatory analysis reveals that releasing teams negotiated very well the transfers of Riyad Mahrez, Thilo Kehrer, Yerry Mina and Alex Meret.”

See the full report at http://www.football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/b5wp/2018/232/en/

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