July 2 – With Group A set to conclude tonight USA and Jamaica look set confirm their qualification for the next stage but topping the group is key to who they face next, and where.
At present the USA goal difference is +6, Jamaica are +3 but play the weaker of the group’s teams on form to date. St Kitts & Nevis cannot go through to the quarter finals but they could be spoilers for the Jamaican team.
The US team’s fate is in their own hands to finish top of the group, though Trinidad & Tobago, subject to some fierce criticism in their own media, could be a spoiler for the US. It wouldn’t be for the first time. A Trinidad and Tobago win in Trinidad knocked the USA out of the 2018 World Cup. But that manager, Dennis Lawrence, and most of that team are long gone.
If US win and Jamica win, then as long as Jamaica don’t gain two more goals in goal difference then the US will definitely finish top of the group. They will then play the 2nd place team in Group D in the quarter finals. This could be Canada, Guatemala or Guadeloupe.
If the US team only draw with Trinidad & Tobago and Jamaica win their game – then Jamaica will finish top of the group and US will finish in 2nd place.
If Trinidad & Tobago did beat the US then they would leap frog over the US team and finish with 6 points as opposed to US’s 4 points and potentially be spoilers for the US. This assumes Jamaica win or draw their game against St Kitts & Nevis, leaving the US in 3rd place – in this case Jamaica would have 7 or 5 points over USA’s 4 points.
As long as Jamaica win their game against St Kitts they will go through to the next stage and most likely as 2nd place in the group.
Reminder – Jamaica would need to increase their goal difference by 4 or more to win the group to score.
If US and Jamaica both win and Jamaica increase their goal difference to equal the US then the tiebraker rules will kick in,
CONCACAF tie breaker rules
If Jamaica only draw with St Kitts & Nevis and the US win, then Jamaica will finish in 2nd place.
If Jamaica only get a draw and the US v Trinidad & Tobago game is a draw then its down to goal difference and the tie braker rules to determine 1st and 2 nd place between the US and Jamaica.
If Jamaica lose and the US win their game, then Jamaica still finish in 2nd place.
If Jamaica lose and the US draws their game, then Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago will each end up with 4 points and it will go down to goal difference then tie breaker rules to determine who goes through to the quarter finals.
To conclude whilst it is likely the USA and Jamaica will go through to the quarter finals, there is still a chance that Trinidad & Tobago can steal the opportunity and St Kitts & Nevis could be the spoilers that trigger this.
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Ref: Concacaf rules as below from Concacaf site