December 3 – A new study from European Football Clubs (EFC) and the CIES Football Observatory has delivered a clear, data-driven warning: for aspiring elite European youth players prospects, early moves away from their training clubs are more likely to stall a career than accelerate it.
The research – titled The Impact of Early Transfers in European Football – tracked 3,375 former youth internationals from the ages of 15 to 24, each among the top minute-getters in their age group. Using “experience capital” to measure how much senior football these players accumulated – and at what level – the study maps how early movement shapes long-term careers.
Players who left their home country before turning 18 accumulated 15% less senior experience by age 23. Those who jumped from Eastern to Western Europe saw that figure worsen to 25%, a reflection of both cultural and footballing distance. And the most itinerant talents – seven or more clubs before 23 – ended up with less than half the experience of peers who stayed put.
Even domestic moves came with a measurable cost: early home-country transfers between the ages of 15 and 18 led to a 7.4% drop in ‘experience capital’.
For EFC, the takeaway is unmistakable. “These findings show that stability is one of the strongest predictors of long-term success for young players,” said Dennis te Kloese, EFC Executive Committee member and Feyenoord CEO. “A small number of exceptional talents may thrive after early transfers, but the evidence is clear that most benefit from remaining in well-structured domestic environments.”
Te Kloese stressed that transfers are “a normal part of the game,” but warned that early moves without a clear development plan or proper support “often limit opportunities for meaningful senior minutes.”
The study strengthens EFC’s push for greater flexibility around longer-term first professional contracts, arguing that training clubs need the tools to keep young players in stable environments at the most formative stage of their careers.
In a market increasingly defined by aggressive recruitment and global scouting, the message of the report is that for youth development, the smartest move is often no move at all.
Contact the writer of this story, Harry Ewing, at [email protected]