August 3 – With Europe’s transfer deadline now less than 30 days away and the start of the Premier League season just eight days off, how much more activity can be expected in what has already been a financially explosive window?
Bookmaker bwin has had another stat attack and analysed the last five seasons to work out the optimum time to conduct transfer activity. Is buying players once the season has started an effective strategy or not?
The evidence from the bwin stats would seem to point towards it not being a smart aware, and Tottenham Hotspur should perhaps beware. 66% of clubs who spend 75% or more in August fail to improve on last seasons points tally.
Couple this with the stat that 65% of clubs who spend 90% of their money before August won more points per game in their first five fixtures than their overall season. Contrast this with 36% of clubs who spend 75% or more in August win more points per game in their first 5 fixtures than their overall season, then the advice would appear to be to buy early and get players settled in.
But the Premier League buyers love a deal and when there is a deal in the wind commonsense can fly out the window. The Premier League typically makes 66% of its signings by July 31, and typically completes 12% of its signings on transfer deadline day (August 31).
Leaving it to the last minute can backfire horribly. Of the clubs that made 40% or more signings on deadline day, only 36.8% of those score more points in their first five matches. Manchester United in 2013/4 made 100% of their signings on deadline day and dropped 25 points that season.
Last season Spurs were actually the anomaly to this rule of thumb. With 60% of their signings made on deadline day, they had a 16 point increase.
See the full research at https://sports.bwin.com/en/news/football-betting/transfer-window,130774.html.
Contact the writer of this story at moc.l1714169312labto1714169312ofdlr1714169312owedi1714169312sni@n1714169312osloh1714169312cin.l1714169312uap1714169312