November 27 – FIFA has revealed the seeding and pot formulation for the 48-team World Cup set to be held next summer in the United States, Mexico and Canada ahead of the draw which will be held on December 5.
The world’s governing body is set to introduce ‘tennis-style’ seeding to the draw which will keep the world’s current top four – Spain, Argentina, France and England – in opposite pathways to ‘ensure a competitive balance’.
There is a caveat, though, as this carefully curated formula only works if those teams win their groups. FIFA seems to want its perceived big boys separated for as long as possible. England and France are set up to meet either Spain or Argentina in the last four, though the governing body stresses that the exact pairings will still be drawn at random.
It’s not guaranteed that Spain (seeded 1) faces France (3) or that Argentina (2) meets England (4), but the structure appears to be built to make those matchups more likely.
This World Cup tournament now features 12 groups of four. The three host nations, U.S., Mexico, and Canada, will all sit in pot one, with the rest of the pots based on FIFA’s rankings.
The six playoff winners will drop into pot four. The system already shields the top sides from each other in the group stage, and this latest wrinkle pushes the separation even further.
FIFA insists it’s all about “competitive balance,” but whether that protects the quality of the tournament or over-manages it is a fair question.
This is where the gymnastics comes into play as FIFA tries to avoid bending itself into a pretzel, having teams from the same confederation in the same group.
However, with UEFA sending 16 teams, overlap is unavoidable. England could easily end up with Scotland, Wales, or Northern Ireland if they qualify, since the teams sit in pots three or four. No group will have more than two European sides, but duplicates are guaranteed somewhere.
The day after the draw, on December 6, FIFA will announce the match schedule, deciding who plays where and when. The organisation says it will try to give teams the best possible conditions while still making kick-off times friendly for fans around the world – perhaps code for sending a country to play their three matches in New York, Los Angeles, and Dallas.
As of yet, there has been no objections from the other heavyweights of World Cup football, previous winners, finalists, and semi-finalists, in the form of Brazil, Germany, Holland, Portugal, and potentially Italy.