.jpg)
The 2010 World Cup is over.
FIFA’s 2018/2022 inspection team has hit the road.
With less than four months to go, the race to stage the next World Cup but one is finally steaming towards the top of the 24 FIFA Executive Committee members’ in-trays.
At this point, with contenders jostling for position ahead of the final push, I thought it would be a good time to attempt to assess the state of play in this 2018 contest: Who would be likely to back whom if the all-important vote were tomorrow rather than in December?
The following stab at the first-round outcome is what I have come up with. In some cases, my score-sheet is based on no more than a hunch; in others, on something more substantial.
For now, I am assuming that Sepp Blatter, the FIFA President, however he might influence the result in other ways, confines himself to exercising a casting vote if and when required.
This leaves 23 votes to distribute between the five runners and this, in ascending order, is where I currently have them falling:
● Belgium/Holland Two Votes D’Hooghe and Chung
● United States Three Votes Blazer, Warner and Salguero
● England Five Votes Thompson, Adamu, Erzik, Bin Hammam and Ogura
● Spain/Portugal Six Votes Villar Llona, Leoz, Grondona, Teixeira, Hayatou and Abo Rida
● Russia Seven Votes Mutko, Lefkaritis, Anouma, Beckenbauer, Platini, Makudi and Temarii
If this were the first-round outcome, and assuming FIFA adopts an Olympic-style “devil-take-the-hindmost” voting system, I would expect Russia to win comfortably, probably on the second round, as supporters of other candidates realised the writing was on the wall and moved to endorse the concept of a World Cup in Eastern Europe.
For this reason, it is vital, I think, for other contenders to do everything they can to prevent Russia from establishing a first-round lead.
Happily for them, there is still plenty that can happen that might lead to a very different first-round result.
Firstly, it might not be a five-horse race.
The US could yet decide to focus solely on 2022.
However, since South Africa, I have twice heard rumours of a head of steam building up behind the US’s 2018 bid.
If those stories turn out to have substance, you would have to regard US hopes for 2018 as still very much alive.
All the more so as European ExCo members whose countries are 2018 candidates have a built-in incentive to vote for the US should their own bid be eliminated first: a US victory in 2018 is the only way European candidates can remain in the race for 2022.
Also, while I would be surprised if England, Russia and Holland/Belgium folded their cards before the vote, I am still not utterly convinced that Spain/Portugal will remain in the race come what may.
If either or both the US and Spain/Portugal pulled out before decision day, I think it could put a very different complexion on the race.
Secondly, even if my assessment of those who might be inclined to vote for Russia now is spot on (and you can judge for yourselves the likelihood of that), there is plenty of scope for opinions to change before December.
England, I would think, must be hoping that Thailand’s Worawi Makudi and Germany’s Franz Beckenbauer will vote for them rather than Russia.
I would also expect them to be optimistic about landing the vote of Issa Hayatou, President of CAF, the African Football Confederation, partly because the English FA backed the Cameroonian in his unsuccessful challenge for the FIFA Presidency in 2002.
Shuffle those votes around accordingly and you get a very different first-round result.
Russian bid leaders must also be hoping for a change in the weather – which has seen the Moscow region hit by a record heatwave – before the FIFA inspection team arrives in Russia on August 16.
By the same token, however, I wonder about the depth of commitment of some of those whose votes I have allocated to England.
Both Mohamed Bin Hammam, a Qatari, and Japan’s Junji Ogura will presumably be concerned to maximise the prospects of their respective countries in the simultaneous 2022 contest.
Logically, the best way to do that might well be to vote for two, or even three different candidates in different rounds of the 2018 race.
After all, each of the 2018 bidders has an ExCo member who might then be more favourably disposed towards the Japan/Qatar bids in the 2022 contest.
It is still all to play for as the FIFA inspectors prepare to touch down in Brussels on Monday.
David Owen is a specialist sports journalist who worked for 20 years for the Financial Times in the United States, Canada, France and the UK. He ended his FT career as sports editor after the 2006 World Cup and is now freelancing, including covering the 2008 Beijing Olympics and 2010 World Cup. Owen’s Twitter feed can be accessed at www.twitter.com/dodo938